Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
COMMUTEAIR · FLIGHT C5 4839
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
C5 4839 · IAH → AMA
departs 8:39 PM CT · arrives 10:48 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 48h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 23%
Sun 10/11 27%
Odds over time
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave IAH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at AMA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AMA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
8pm departures from IAH are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at IAH
Weather at each end
IAH (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
AMA (destination)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.