Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

CHINA AIRLINES · FLIGHT CI 5176 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow

CI 5176 · TPE → SFO

departs 12:13 AM CST · arrives 8:07 PM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SFO that day

Weather at each end

TPE (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

CI 5176 · TPE → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?