Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 1806
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
DL 1806 · DFW → SEA
departs 5:35 PM CT · arrives 7:42 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 25%
Tue 10/6 18%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 18%
Sat 10/10 31%
Sun 10/11 37%
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
19%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
5pm departures from DFW are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
Weather at each end
DFW (origin)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.