Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 2474
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
DL 2474 · RIC → RSW
departs 9:46 AM ET · arrives 12:03 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
+2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RSW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave RIC more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RSW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to RSW?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.3 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at RSW that day
↑
RSW is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at RIC
Weather at each end
RIC (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
RSW (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 6,000 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.31 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.