Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8838
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
DL 8838 · PHX → DEN
departs 6:36 PM MT · arrives 9:20 PM MT
Forecast issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±1 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.2d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at DEN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to DEN?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
6pm departures from PHX are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN
Weather at each end
PHX (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
DEN (destination)
Gusts 14 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.