Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
DELTA · FLIGHT DL 8952
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
DL 8952 · TPA → EWR
departs 1:01 PM ET · arrives 3:48 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 7:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±4 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
3%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at EWR more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed +2 pts in 24h
+2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at EWR more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to EWR?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
12%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
EWR is prone to delays
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at EWR
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.18 in
EWR (destination)
Gusts 19 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.