Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ALLEGIANT · FLIGHT G4 841
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
G4 841 · TOL → PGD
departs 12:21 PM ET · arrives 3:01 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
20%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
20%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
20%
Yes 20%
No 80%
Leave TOL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PGD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to PGD?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 900 ft, 0.9 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day
↑
This flight has been late 28% of the time recently
↑
12pm departures from TOL are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at TOL
Weather at each end
TOL (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PGD (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 900 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip 0.99 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.