G4 928 · SPI → PGD

departs 5:06 PM CT · arrives 8:44 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at PGD more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±3 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PGD?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
8%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1.1 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at PGD that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SPI

Weather at each end

SPI (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PGD (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,800 ft Visibility7 mi Precip1.08 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

G4 928 · SPI → PGD

Odds over time

How late will it get to PGD?