Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
STARLUX · FLIGHT JX 11
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
JX 11 · SFO → TPE
departs 12:53 AM PT · arrives 5:00 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 35h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 14%
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 13%
Odds over time
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
14%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
1.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at TPE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
14%
Yes 14%
No 86%
Arrive at TPE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to TPE?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is busy at that time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.9 mi forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
SFO (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 0.9 mi Precip none
TPE (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.