Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3531
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
MQ 3531 · MFE → DFW
departs 5:48 PM CT · arrives 7:47 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 50h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 13%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.1d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MFE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at DFW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to DFW?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Mostly benign weather forecast at MFE
↑
Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
MFE (origin)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling 3,300 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.04 in
DFW (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.