Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3558
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
MQ 3558 · OMA → ORD
departs 12:14 PM CT · arrives 1:58 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 21%
Sat 10/10 19%
Odds over time
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
7%
chance · ±2 pts
−14 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
7%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −14 pts in 24h
−14 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Leave OMA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed −9 pts in 24h
−9 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at ORD more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −7 pts in 24h
−7 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to ORD?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↑
This flight has been late 23% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
Weather at each end
OMA (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
ORD (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.