Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
ENVOY · FLIGHT MQ 3892
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
MQ 3892 · MZT → PHX
departs 1:31 PM MST · arrives 3:56 PM MT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 20%
Sat 10/10 21%
Sun 10/11 24%
Odds over time
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
4%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MZT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at PHX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to PHX?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
PHX is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX
↓
Other factors
Weather at each end
MZT (origin)
Gusts — Ceiling — Visibility — Precip —
PHX (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.