MX 248 · MCO → SPI

departs 4:58 PM ET · arrives 6:42 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SPI more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±8 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SPI?

On time or early
52%
15–30 min late
22%
30 min–1 hour late
13%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ 4pm departures from MCO are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SPI

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.00 in

SPI (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 248 · MCO → SPI

Odds over time

How late will it get to SPI?