MX 249 · SPI → MCO

departs 7:34 PM CT · arrives 11:03 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

41% chance · ±6 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MCO?

On time or early
55%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
17%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
7%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.0 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ MCO is busy at that time

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SPI

Weather at each end

SPI (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip1.00 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

MX 249 · SPI → MCO

Odds over time

How late will it get to MCO?