Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 766
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
MX 766 · TPA → RDU
departs 7:10 AM ET · arrives 9:09 AM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 34h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 16%
Tue 10/6 10%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 10%
Sun 10/11 10%
Odds over time
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±0 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
11%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
5%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
1.8d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Arrive at RDU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
How late will it get to RDU?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
5%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 700 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
MX's recent on-time record
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 5 mi Precip 1.70 in
RDU (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.