Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
BREEZE · FLIGHT MX 819
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
MX 819 · ERI → MCO
departs 9:19 PM ET · arrives 11:52 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 18%
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
25%
Arrive 1h+ late
11%
Cancelled
4%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.4d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave ERI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
8%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
4%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 733 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ERI
Weather at each end
ERI (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.