Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ANA · FLIGHT NH 8 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow

NH 8 · NRT → SFO

departs 4:24 PM JST · arrives 10:00 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 11:00 PM ET · 28h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at NRT

Weather at each end

NRT (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility0.3 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

NH 8 · NRT → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?