Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SKYWEST · FLIGHT OO 5103
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
OO 5103 · ORD → JLN
departs 10:15 AM CT · arrives 12:03 PM CT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 19%
Mon 10/5 13%
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 15%
Sat 10/10 21%
Odds over time
Arrive at JLN more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JLN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave ORD more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at JLN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JLN?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
10am departures from ORD are often late
↑
This flight has been late 26% of the time recently
↑
ORD is busy at that time
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
ORD (origin)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JLN (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.