Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PHILIPPINE AIRLINES · FLIGHT PR 104
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
PR 104 · MNL → SFO
departs 11:13 PM PST · arrives 8:17 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 38h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 34%
Sun 10/11 34%
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
16%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
16%
Leave 15+ late
17%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.0d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Leave MNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 0.3 mi forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
MNL (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 200 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.