Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
PHILIPPINE AIRLINES · FLIGHT PR 125
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
PR 125 · SEA → MNL
departs 11:15 PM PT · arrives 4:06 AM PST
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at MNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MNL?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
This route's recent record
↑
SEA is busy at that time
↓
Cloud base down to 100 ft forecast at SEA that day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
Weather at each end
SEA (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
MNL (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.