PT 5870 · PHL → BUF

departs 5:33 PM ET · arrives 6:55 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 23h before departure

Arrive at BUF more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BUF?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from PHL are often late

↑ Gusts to 33 kt forecast at BUF that day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

Weather at each end

PHL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BUF (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

PT 5870 · PHL → BUF

Odds over time

How late will it get to BUF?