Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2139
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
QX 2139 · PAE → SFO
departs 8:18 AM PT · arrives 10:31 AM PT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 47h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 21%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
7%
Cancelled
3%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 12% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
15%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
3%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This route's recent record
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
8am departures from PAE are usually not late
Weather at each end
PAE (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 9 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.