Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2189
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
QX 2189 · SAN → PAE
departs 7:26 PM PT · arrives 10:33 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · 53h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 52%
Tue 10/6 19%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 14% · changed – in 24h
–
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at PAE more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to PAE?
On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
7pm departures from SAN are often late
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 0.8 mi forecast at SAN that day
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 0.8 mi Precip none
PAE (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.