Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
HORIZON · FLIGHT QX 2290
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7 Tomorrow
QX 2290 · MRY → SEA
departs 6:21 PM PT · arrives 8:44 PM PT
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 PM ET · 32h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 34%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
24%
chance · ±3 pts
−2 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
24%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
2%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
2.4d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 22% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Leave MRY more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at SEA more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SEA?
On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
0%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late
↑
MRY is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA
Weather at each end
MRY (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 100 ft Visibility 0.3 mi Precip none
SEA (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.