Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SUN COUNTRY · FLIGHT SY 6050 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

SY 6050 · LAL → CVG

departs 7:40 PM ET · arrives 9:59 PM ET

Forecast issued Mon 10:00 PM ET · 46h before departure

Arrive at CVG more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to CVG?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 600 ft, 1.1 in of rain forecast at LAL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into CVG at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at CVG

Weather at each end

LAL (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility5 mi Precip1.16 in

CVG (destination) Gusts14 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

SY 6050 · LAL → CVG

Odds over time

How late will it get to CVG?