Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 2865 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

UA 2865 · DEN → ORD

departs 11:15 AM MT · arrives 2:55 PM CT

Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±2 pts −10 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 11am departures from DEN are often late

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ORD (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 2865 · DEN → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?