Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 4209 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

UA 4209 · BFI → SEA

departs 11:05 AM PT · arrives 12:19 PM PT

Forecast issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 66h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at BFI

↑ This route's recent record

↑ SEA is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 11am departures from BFI are usually not late

Weather at each end

BFI (origin) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

SEA (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 4209 · BFI → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?