Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

UNITED · FLIGHT UA 755 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

UA 755 · RNO → SFO

departs 8:06 AM PT · arrives 9:17 AM PT

Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 68h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±4 pts −5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
77%
15–30 min late
0%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 53% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at RNO

Weather at each end

RNO (origin) Gusts3 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts4 kt Ceiling1,700 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

UA 755 · RNO → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?