Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1404
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 1404 · LAS → FAT
departs 1:17 PM PT · arrives 2:34 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
18%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 16% · changed – in 24h
–
18%
Yes 18%
No 82%
Arrive at FAT more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to FAT?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
1pm departures from LAS are often late
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 18% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
FAT (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.