Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 141
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 141 · BUF → MCO
departs 2:39 PM ET · arrives 5:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 42h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
35%
chance · ±16 pts
+10 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
35%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
8%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
4.9d
2d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed +10 pts in 24h
+10 pts
35%
Yes 35%
No 65%
Leave BUF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed +3 pts in 24h
+3 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 733 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
BUF (origin)
Gusts 32 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 800 ft Visibility 7 mi Precip 0.80 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.