Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1498
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 1498 · BNA → JAX
departs 2:20 PM CT · arrives 4:54 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
11%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
11%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
11%
Yes 11%
No 89%
Leave BNA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at JAX more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to JAX?
On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,200 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
2pm departures from BNA are often late
↑
This flight has been late 25% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BNA
Weather at each end
BNA (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
JAX (destination)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,133 ft Visibility 6 mi Precip 0.93 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.