Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1604
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 1604 · LAS → SAN
departs 9:42 AM PT · arrives 10:54 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 3:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
17%
chance · ±2 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
17%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
17%
Yes 17%
No 83%
Leave LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at SAN more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SAN?
On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 38% of the time recently
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
LAS (origin)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SAN (destination)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.