Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 1771
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 1771 · FAT → LAS
departs 1:16 PM PT · arrives 2:32 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 12%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
9%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
9%
Leave 15+ late
10%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Leave FAT more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 10% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
FAT is prone to delays
↑
Arrivals into LAS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at LAS
Weather at each end
FAT (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 10 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.