Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 177
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 177 · MCO → AUS
departs 1:26 PM ET · arrives 3:16 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 55h before departure
Watch this flight
Odds over time
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
16%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.9d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at AUS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
16%
Yes 16%
No 84%
Arrive at AUS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to AUS?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
1pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Arrivals into AUS at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at AUS
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.45 in
AUS (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.