Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 212
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 212 · ATL → LAS
departs 7:27 AM ET · arrives 8:24 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 7:00 PM ET · 60h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 18%
Mon 10/5 20%
Tue 10/6 6%
Wed 10/7
Thu 10/8 13%
Fri 10/9 6%
Odds over time
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
5%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
5%
Leave 15+ late
5%
Arrive 1h+ late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
6.3d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at LAS more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Leave ATL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Arrive at LAS more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to LAS?
On time or early
94%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Other factors
↑
LAS is prone to delays
↑
This flight has been late 20% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at ATL
Weather at each end
ATL (origin)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
LAS (destination)
Gusts 11 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.