Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2234
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2234 · MCO → BDL
departs 5:28 PM ET · arrives 8:16 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 30%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
25%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
25%
Leave 15+ late
34%
Arrive 1h+ late
9%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at BDL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
25%
Yes 25%
No 75%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
34%
Yes 34%
No 66%
Arrive at BDL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to BDL?
On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
5pm departures from MCO are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at BDL
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 9.33333 mi Precip 0.45 in
BDL (destination)
Gusts 20 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.