Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2238
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2238 · MCO → SJU
departs 10:40 AM ET · arrives 1:34 PM AT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 59h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 14%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
4%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 6% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
4%
Yes 4%
No 96%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 600 ft, 0.6 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SJU that day
↑
This flight has been late 21% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
MCO is quiet at that time
Weather at each end
MCO (origin)
Gusts 21 kt Ceiling 600 ft Visibility 7.33333 mi Precip 0.61 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.