Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2345 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 7

WN 2345 · LGB → SMF

departs 10:02 AM PT · arrives 11:34 AM PT

Forecast issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 48h before departure

Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?

7% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SMF?

On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LGB that day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ WN's recent on-time record

Weather at each end

LGB (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility1 mi Precipnone

SMF (destination) Gusts6 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 2345 · LGB → SMF

Odds over time

How late will it get to SMF?