Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2461
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2461 · LIH → HNL
departs 7:11 PM HT · arrives 8:01 PM HT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
13%
chance · ±2 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
13%
Leave 15+ late
9%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Leave LIH more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
9%
Yes 9%
No 91%
Arrive at HNL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to HNL?
On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↑
HNL is prone to delays
↑
Other factors
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
This flight has been late 5% of the time recently
Weather at each end
LIH (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling 700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
HNL (destination)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,100 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.01 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.