Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2492
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2492 · SAN → SFO
departs 8:34 AM PT · arrives 10:09 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 2:00 PM ET · 70h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 15%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
19%
chance · ±3 pts
−5 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
19%
Leave 15+ late
24%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −5 pts in 24h
−5 pts
19%
Yes 19%
No 81%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
24%
Yes 24%
No 76%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 43% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.