Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2515
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2515 · MCI → MCO
departs 5:57 AM CT · arrives 9:39 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 5:00 PM ET · 62h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 2%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
3%
chance · ±3 pts
+1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
3%
Leave 15+ late
3%
Arrive 1h+ late
1%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
4.6d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Leave MCI more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +1 pt in 24h
+1 pt
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
96%
15–30 min late
1%
30 min–1 hour late
<1%
1–2 hours late
<1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,133 ft, 0.4 in of rain forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↓
Early flights usually leave on time
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MCI (origin)
Gusts 9 kt
Ceiling none (clear)
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 21 kt
Ceiling 1,133 ft
Visibility 10+ mi
Precip 0.42 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.