Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 2720
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 2720 · LGB → SMF
departs 1:26 PM PT · arrives 2:56 PM PT
Forecast issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 58h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 11%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
12%
Arrive 1h+ late
5%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 8% · changed – in 24h
–
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave LGB more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
5%
Yes 5%
No 95%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Early flights usually leave on time
↑
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at SMF
Weather at each end
LGB (origin)
Gusts 12 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 6 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.