Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 3226
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 3226 · TPA → SJU
departs 3:57 PM ET · arrives 6:56 PM AT
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 64h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 26%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
33%
chance · ±5 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
33%
Leave 15+ late
28%
Arrive 1h+ late
6%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
15%
30%
45%
60%
5.0d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed – in 24h
–
33%
Yes 33%
No 67%
Leave TPA more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 13% · changed – in 24h
–
28%
Yes 28%
No 72%
Arrive at SJU more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to SJU?
On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
20%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
0.7 in of rain forecast at TPA that day
↑
0.3 in of rain forecast at SJU that day
↑
3pm departures from TPA are often late
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
TPA (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.69 in
SJU (destination)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 3,000 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.27 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.