Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4157
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 4157 · STL → SFO
departs 8:29 AM CT · arrives 10:38 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 8%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±1 pts
−3 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
13%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.7d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 9% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave STL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
13%
Yes 13%
No 87%
Arrive at SFO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to SFO?
On time or early
92%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late
↑
This flight has been late 17% of the time recently
↑
SFO is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SFO that day
Weather at each end
STL (origin)
Gusts 9 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
SFO (destination)
Gusts 4 kt Ceiling 1,700 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.