Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4565
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 4565 · SAN → SMF
departs 8:06 AM PT · arrives 9:46 AM PT
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 67h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 9%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
10%
chance · ±1 pts
−1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
10%
Leave 15+ late
7%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
4.8d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at SMF more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
10%
Yes 10%
No 90%
Leave SAN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −3 pts in 24h
−3 pts
7%
Yes 7%
No 93%
Arrive at SMF more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed −1 pt in 24h
−1 pt
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
<1%
Yes <1%
No 99%
How late will it get to SMF?
On time or early
89%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
SAN is prone to delays
↑
Visibility down to 1 mi forecast at SAN that day
↑
This flight has been late 24% of the time recently
↓
WN's recent on-time record
↓
Arrivals into SMF at that hour are usually not late
Weather at each end
SAN (origin)
Gusts 7 kt Ceiling 1,500 ft Visibility 1 mi Precip none
SMF (destination)
Gusts 5 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.