WN 4903 · MCO → SJU

departs 10:35 AM ET · arrives 1:34 PM AT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 PM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SJU more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±2 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJU?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 500 ft, 1.4 in of rain, thunderstorms forecast at MCO that day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJU

↑ This flight has been late 30% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

MCO (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.42 in

SJU (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling3,900 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

WN 4903 · MCO → SJU

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJU?