Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 4971
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 4971 · DEN → PHL
departs 3:34 PM MT · arrives 9:10 PM ET
Forecast issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 16%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
22%
chance · ±3 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
22%
Leave 15+ late
27%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
<1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 18% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Leave DEN more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 19% · changed – in 24h
–
27%
Yes 27%
No 73%
Arrive at PHL more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
<1%
Yes <1%
No 100%
How late will it get to PHL?
On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This flight has been late 36% of the time recently
↑
3pm departures from DEN are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL
Weather at each end
DEN (origin)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
PHL (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.