Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 636
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 636 · MDW → MCO
departs 8:28 AM CT · arrives 11:57 AM ET
Forecast issued Sun 4:00 PM ET · 66h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 7%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
8%
chance · ±3 pts
+0 pts · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
8%
Leave 15+ late
6%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
1%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
6.4d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 4% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
8%
Yes 8%
No 92%
Leave MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 5% · changed −2 pts in 24h
−2 pts
6%
Yes 6%
No 94%
Arrive at MCO more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed +0 pts in 24h
+0 pts
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MCO?
On time or early
91%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Cloud base down to 1,133 ft forecast at MCO that day
↑
Other factors
↑
This flight has been late 31% of the time recently
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
WN's recent on-time record
Weather at each end
MDW (origin)
Gusts 15 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
MCO (destination)
Gusts 17 kt Ceiling 1,133 ft Visibility 10+ mi Precip 0.34 in
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.