Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
SOUTHWEST · FLIGHT WN 981
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
WN 981 · JAX → MDW
departs 5:29 PM ET · arrives 7:02 PM CT
Forecast issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 54h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Tue 10/6 25%
Wed 10/7
Odds over time
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
12%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
12%
Leave 15+ late
22%
Arrive 1h+ late
2%
Cancelled
2%
MOSTLY HISTORY
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
5.1d
Now
2d
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MDW more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 7% · changed – in 24h
–
12%
Yes 12%
No 88%
Leave JAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 11% · changed – in 24h
–
22%
Yes 22%
No 78%
Arrive at MDW more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 2% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: <1% · changed – in 24h
–
2%
Yes 2%
No 98%
How late will it get to MDW?
On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
2%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
Gusts to 28 kt, cloud base down to 1,067 ft, 0.9 in of rain forecast at JAX that day
↑
Arrivals into MDW at that hour are often late
↑
Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Mostly benign weather forecast at MDW
Weather at each end
JAX (origin)
Gusts 28 kt Ceiling 1,067 ft Visibility 8 mi Precip 0.93 in
MDW (destination)
Gusts 16 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.