Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Sep 30, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.
VOLARIS · FLIGHT Y4 7781
SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE
Wednesday, October 7
Y4 7781 · LAX → MLM
departs 12:32 AM PT · arrives 5:04 AM CST
Forecast issued Mon 9:00 PM ET · 30h before departure
Watch this flight
Other days
Today 22%
Wed 10/7
Sat 10/10 22%
Sun 10/11 22%
Odds over time
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
15%
chance · ±1 pts
– · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE
Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
Arrive 15+ late
15%
Leave 15+ late
15%
Arrive 1h+ late
3%
Cancelled
1%
WEATHER FORECASTS
LIVE
IN THE AIR
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
1.7d
Now
1d
12h
6h
Departs
Lands
Arrive at MLM more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 17% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Leave LAX more than 15 minutes late?
Calm-weather odds: 15% · changed – in 24h
–
15%
Yes 15%
No 85%
Arrive at MLM more than an hour late?
Calm-weather odds: 3% · changed – in 24h
–
3%
Yes 3%
No 97%
Cancelled?
Calm-weather odds: 1% · changed – in 24h
–
1%
Yes 1%
No 99%
How late will it get to MLM?
On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%
Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.
What’s moving the odds
↑
This route's recent record
↑
Y4's recent on-time record
↑
LAX is prone to delays
↓
Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average
↓
Cloud base down to 400 ft, visibility down to 2 mi forecast at LAX that day
Weather at each end
LAX (origin)
Gusts 13 kt Ceiling 400 ft Visibility 2 mi Precip none
MLM (destination)
Gusts 8 kt Ceiling none (clear) Visibility 10+ mi Precip none
How this resolves
Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.
Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.